San Francisco is going to have an earthquake, although no one can predict where or when. When the big one does happen, both the campus football and baseball fields will serve as a relocation area for students and residents in the area, according to campus officials.

San Francisco is surrounded by eight faults. In 1906, an earthquake killed thousands of people in the city. But in 1989, the Loma Prieta quake killed only nine people, although the city sustained major damage. SF State has been preparing itself for the next earthquake ever since.

According to the US Geological Society, a repeat of the 7.9 magnitude quake that struck in 1906 could result in 5,800 fatalities. And the Association of Bay Area Governments, estimated there could be more than 150,000 uninhabitable residences. The USGS concluded that there is a 62 percent chance of at least one 6.7 magnitude or greater quake striking the Bay Area within the next thirty years.

The disaster program allows the school to run independently for two to three days. Robert Shearer is the Director of Environmental Health and Occupational Safety at SF State and a retired fire chief of 30 years.

He said because of the disaster plan, SF State could supply students and residents with food, water and first aid. Shearer said the program would have the administration, campus police and his department working closely together in an emergency. Shearer said the plan assumes that SF State would be totally cut off from emergency services.

Although SF State only has one emergency medical technician, many buildings have safety coordinators trained in first aid, CPR and building evacuation procedures.

Emergency wells on campus serve as a way to fight fires and provide drinking water, according to Shearer. In that case SF State may be better prepared for an earthquake than the rest of San Francisco.

“We’re in a lot of jeopardy,” said James Dalessandro, a San Francisco historian. “San Francisco's not as prepared as we should be.”

Considering the growth in the population of San Francisco, plus the number of tourists and commuters, the death toll could be three times the amount of the 1906 earthquake, he added.

“We need to be better prepared,” Dalessandro said.

"In order to survive budget cuts, we've had to use creative measures to retain resources," said Pete Howes, executive officer for the San Francisco Fire Department. Because of the budget cuts, San Francisco has only four engine companies a day in four different areas of the city.

The biggest difficulty is in coordinating and communicating between emergency service departments, according to Darcy Brown, San Francisco’s chief of administration for emergency services. SF State Police Chief Kimberly Wible was not available for comment regarding communication and emergency procedures.

"The real test comes when it happens," Howes said.

"We don’t know how to predict an earthquake,” said Dr. John Caskey, assistant professor of geology at SF State. "There has only been one successful earthquake prediction ever." The prediction was made in 1975 in China through land measurements, monitoring foreshocks and strange animal behavior. And because a 24-hour warning was issued before the 7.3 magnitude earthquake, as many as 3 million lives may have been saved.

But Caskey said a 7.6 magnitude earthquake that struck China the next year killed an estimated 250,000 people because it struck without any warning.

“We will experience a big earthquake,” said Caskey. “It could be tomorrow, it could be in ten years.”
SF State has prepared by retrofitting many of the buildings on campus. The J. Paul Leonard Library is scheduled for seismic retrofitting this summer at a proposed cost of $94.5 million.

Norman Owen, a professor of civil engineering, said SF State has attended to the major issues. But he said if an earthquake with a large magnitude hit the Bay Area there could still be damage.
Professor of Geosciences Jon Galehouse retired from SF State in 1996, but not before discovering that the Loma Prieta earthquake relaxed stress on the Hayward fault. This release valve could would delay large earthquakes by a few years.

"Future earthquakes have the potential to shake the city more severely than the 1989 earthquake did," said Keith Knudsen, president of the Northern California Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.
Knudsen said because the quake was not centered in the Bay Area there was not as much damage as there could have been.

"We will be exposed to strong shaking from an earthquake," Knudsen said. "It's not a question of if but rather a question of when."