The outcome of the Super Bowl comes down to two questions: can they stop Peyton Manning and can Rex Grossman get the job done?

Indianapolis needs to show up as the team that has allowed fewer third downs then anyone else in the playoffs and not the team that had embarrassing losses to Jacksonville and Houston. Peyton Manning needs to find a way to overcome a defense that only allowed an NFC-best 255 points against them.

Indianapolis was boosted by the return of Bob Sanders in the playoffs. With only 73.3 yards allowed rushing per game, Indianapolis’ turnaround can be largely attributed to his return and the growing confidence of a winning team on a mission.

Whereas Indianapolis’ defense has been improving, Chicago’s problem has always been erratic offense. Grossman’s quarterback rating can be anywhere from a headless chicken to a Dan Marino impression. In an ESPN interview, his high school coach, Mo Moriarity said, “He lives for the Friday night lights.” For the Bears’ sake, he better be right.

However, the Bears don’t need Grossman to win, if they can hold the Colts to under 20 points Grossman doesn’t need to play a great game for them to out-score that. If Bears’ running back Thomas Jones, who leads the team in rushing, has a good game and the Bears concentrate on penetrating, it might be enough.
Prediction: the Colts will take it 27-24, Manning will play a solid, if not great, game and Grossman will have a quarterback rating in the mid-50s. Both defenses will play well, so expect both teams to cover a seven-point spread.

Adam Vinatieri will continue to be the phenomenal pressure kicker he is, and Manning needs this for his legacy and all the intangibles go Indiana’s way.

For those of you expecting Manning to come out and play the game of his career — don’t.

The Bears will pressure him throughout the game and Manning has a habit of not necessarily buckling under pressure, but throwing a few bad passes when he isn’t allowed to get his footing. If he does have a bad game, the Bears will win, but I wouldn’t bet on Manning choking.